Daily ES Futures Outlook

Friday, March 28, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 28, 2025

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đź“Ť Overview

It’s Friday.
That means one thing: Protect your gains.
Don’t let the market claw back what you’ve earned this week.

We’re coming off a tight coil of failed breakouts, mixed flows, and now…
PCE data pre-market — expect volatility from the jump. This is where weak plans get punished.

Important News

  • PCE Index → drops before the bell.

  • Could shift inflation expectations and fuel early fakeouts.

Recap of Previous Session

  • ES pushed toward the weekly high at 5772, tested the RTH gap at 5722, and bounced.

  • Buyers tried—failed breakout.

  • Closed right at the weekly open → Balance restored. Tension building.

10-Day Volume Profile

  • POC now at 5752 → up 40 points from yesterday.

  • Price currently trades just below that pivot.

  • Failure to reclaim? Sellers likely take the wheel again.

10 Day VP

Weekly & Daily Structure

  • Weekly Chart: Still OTFU (bullish).

  • Daily Chart: Now OTFD (bearish).

We’re trapped between 5783 (Weekly VAL) and 5716 (last week’s POC).
Break below 5716?
→ Opens up the low-volume shelf… could get fast.

Weekly VP, Daily Candles

2-Hour Order Flow & Delta

  • Absorption around 5777.

  • Weekly VWAP acting as resistance.

  • Passive sellers dominating up top. Buyers capped—for now.

2hr Delta

NY TPO Session Structure

  • Clean range day with excess below 5735.

  • Watch this zone—it may act like a magnet on weakness.

TPO NY

1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Lower highs, lower lows.

  • Momentum = bearish bias.

  • Strike range remains wide. If we stay under 5752, sellers remain in control.

🎯 Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

đź“Ś Line in the Sand (LIS): 5738
Aligns with:

  • Weekly open

  • NY Value from March 20

  • Prior break of structure

🔹 Bullish Plan:
→ Above 5743, look for targets:
5756 → 5772 → 5790

🔸 Bearish Plan:
→ Rejection under 5735, look for:
5718 → 5700 → 5682

Gameplan

⚠️ Final Thoughts

It’s the last session of the week.
If things get messy—walk away.
Green week? Protect it.

This market doesn’t care about your P&L.
But you should.

Zero emotion. Zero noise. Just structure.
See you Sunday for the extended weekly breakdown.

— Jan
Marketflow Genius

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