Daily ES Futures Outlook

Friday, June 13th

Author

Jan Verhelst
June 13, 2025

Typ1️⃣ Market Overview & Key Events

⚠️ Major Geopolitical Catalyst:
Early this morning, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion”, targeting Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure.
💣 Airstrikes hit enrichment sites, missile facilities, and high-level military personnel.
🛩 Iran responded with drone strikes aimed at Israeli targets.

This real-world conflict triggered a 116-point overnight drop in ES. Volatility is now tied to geopolitical headlines, not just technicals. Be razor sharp. No assumption.

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2️⃣ Recap of Previous Session

Thursday’s Globex dip searched lower, but RTH buyers reclaimed the 6035–6052 zone we’ve tracked all week.
This morning’s massive overnight selloff erased that structure and dragged ES deep below support zones.
All eyes are now on how price behaves near these anomaly levels. Is this a one-time reaction or a structural shift?

3️⃣ Volume Profile Insights

Despite holding OTFU, price sliced through the prior LVN and settled back into the previous value area below 5979.
Buyers stepped in at the edge of the prior POC range, but volume now builds under structure.
🔍 Any reclaim of the LVN zone is critical watch for sharp traps or strong defense near 6000–6015.

4️⃣ Market Structure Review

  • Weekly: OTFU remains intact, but only just.

  • Daily: OTFD formed overnight.
    Structure is weakening fast and volume is now building below last week’s POC (5981.50), implying potential distribution at the top.
    Break and hold below = HTF bearish setup forming.

5️⃣ Order Flow & VWAP (2H Chart)

Thursday’s RTH session managed to push above weekly VWAP, but was met with firm buy absorption around 6050, indicating dealer sell interest.
Today’s Globex action created a violent rejection, and VWAP sits well overhead while momentum is clearly fragile.
Use VWAP retests as the main trigger zone today.

6️⃣ NY TPO Profile

We’re printing a 3-day balance, but yesterday’s inside day kept us near the OR with minimal range.
That changes now the overnight flow broke us out of balance.
Where we open in relation to yesterday’s OR and single prints will be crucial for directional bias.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

The uptrend structure broke overnight.
We now eye the LVN at 6000 and weekly VWAP to see if they act as a lower high (LH) trigger.
Failure to reclaim 6035–6045 area confirms HTF bearish shift.
Strike activity is defensive, no clear bullish wall, just downside protection.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📍 Line in the Sand (LIS): 6036.00
Price above = bull bias; price below = bear control.
Avoid chop around LIS ±1pt.

🟢 Bullish Scenario

  • T1 = 6041.75

  • T2 = 6046.75

  • T3 = 6051.75
    ✅ Confirmation:
    Reclaim 6036 with stacked positive delta, VWAP absorption, and heavy bid reloading on DOM.

🔴 Bearish Scenario

  • T1 = 6032.00

  • T2 = 6027.00

  • T3 = 6022.25
    ⚠️ Confirmation:
    Fail at 6036 with lower high rejections, red delta clusters, and offers holding price down.

🧠 Warning Zone
Stay flat if price ping-pongs between 6034–6038 with overlapping VWAP and no conviction.
No clear delta = no trade.

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Risk Notes

Today is not business as usual.
Real war = real volatility.
Anomalies create opportunity, but only if you’re disciplined.
Stay out of no man’s land. Let price prove intent before entering.
Focus on LIS, VWAP, and clean order flow reactions. No cowboy trades today.

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V.O.M.A. = Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer
A real-time system that maps institutional behavior using live volume, absorption, and order flow signals.

✅ Highlights:

  • Key inflection zones and reclaim traps

  • Delta divergence + absorption alerts

  • Predictive LIS levels with high confluence

  • Dealer positioning decoded through footprint and DOM

We trade it live every day in the Discord.

🎯 Join the Clavis Discord Trading Floor
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🧠 Live LIS levels
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💬 Play-by-play DOM & footprint insights

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59