Daily ES Futures Outlook

Wednesday, June 11th

Author

Jan Verhelst
June 11, 2025

1️⃣ Market Overview & Key Events

Brace for impact!!!

CPI data hits 1 hour before the NY open, and Crude Oil Inventories drop 1 hour into the session.
Today’s a data landmine. Expect sudden liquidity vacuums, fast directional moves, and algorithmic whipsaws. If you're not early, you're late. Duh.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Session

Tuesday gave us a slow but persistent grind upward. Every bearish attempt was absorbed and reversed.
Price hovered with strength above weekly VWAP and closed above February’s VAL, nearly tagging our 6050 resistance, a major seller zone from March. The bulls are poking the bear.

3️⃣ Volume Profile Insights

The 10-day profile remains OTFU and is now expanding value above the March POC at 6017.
📌 6000 acted as the launchpad, just as we warned yesterday.
We’re now re-entering the 5-month breakout range. Volume stacking higher = control shifting to buyers.

4️⃣ Market Structure Review

  • Weekly: Still OTFU. Most traded volume sits below 6025, forming a ledge of interest that could act as a springboard or a ceiling.

  • Daily: Also OTFU. Price is coiling near the edge of old imbalance. Holding above 6040 confirms structural strength.

5️⃣ Order Flow & VWAP (2H Chart)

Order flow is tightening.
Price tested the ±3 standard deviation bands around VWAP upside and downside, showing both momentum and mean-reversion forces battling.
The ongoing fight for VWAP control will be key today, especially with CPI in play.

6️⃣ NY TPO Profile

Tuesday’s profile shows balance, but with a very narrow opening range—suggesting institutional accumulation.
Keep an eye on 6027:

  • Open above = continuation

  • Open below = likely rejection

This is a staging zone for either breakout or failure.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

We’re now sitting between 6035–6052, a crucial reclaim zone.

  • Break and hold above = buyers regain full control of the March selloff.

  • Failure = more chop.
    Strike interest is heavy near 6030, 6050, and 6060, expect volatility around those levels.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 Line in the Sand (LIS): 6045.50
Controls today’s tempo. Stay above = bulls dominate. Break below = seller traps ignite.

Bullish Scenario
🎯 T1: 6051
🎯 T2: 6056
🎯 T3: 6062
📈 Confirm with: Positive delta clusters near VWAP, strong bid lifting at 6051–6055, no rejection tails.

Bearish Scenario
🎯 T1: 6040
🎯 T2: 6034
🎯 T3: 6029
📉 Confirm with: Trapped buyers above 6045, heavy offer stacking, sell delta bursts below VWAP.

🧠 Confirmation Checklist

  • Watch for DOM icebergs at strike walls (6030/6050)

  • Footprint divergence = early signal

  • Do not trade blindly during CPI window (15–20 mins pre/post release) unless flow is clean and directional.

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Risk Notes

Volatility is back. CPI can trigger fakeouts, traps, and velocity shifts.
Wait for the dust to settle.
Let others trade noise, you trade confirmation and structure.
Remember: No position is better than a bad position in a CPI environment.

🧠 What is VOMA?

V.O.M.A. (Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer) is our real-time engine for uncovering the true dealer positioning behind market moves.
It detects volume shelves, absorption points, institutional reaction zones, and pressure pivots.

📌 We use it to define our LIS, track buyer/seller dominance, and guide all real-time decisions.

We trade this system live—daily—in our Discord.

📡 Join the Live Discord Rooms
Get access to real-time VOMA levels, market structure breakdowns, DOM flow commentary, and strategic updates from our team.

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Let others chase momentum.
We map it before it happens.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59