Daily ES Futures Outlook

2025-06-04

Author

Jan Verhelst
June 04, 2025

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1️⃣ Market Overview & Key Events

Crude Oil inventories drop today, watch the first hour for potential market impact. While not a primary equity driver, energy volatility can ripple into risk assets. Stay focused on structure.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Session

Globex session delivered a clean retest of weekly VWAP, offering early signs of bullish strength. NY session confirmed it, pushing us higher and holding firm through the top half of the prior 5-day range. Yesterday’s P-profile hints at passive short covering, momentum still needs confirmation.

3️⃣ Volume Profile Insights

We remain OTFU, but now balancing near the top.

  • Value Area is narrow, coiled inside the previous session’s VA.

  • 6008 is our make-or-break test above.
    Keep in mind: narrow value after range expansion often precedes the next leg.

4️⃣ Market Structure Review

  • Weekly: OTFU, compressing inside a 4-week range.

  • POC has shifted to 5980, suggesting accumulation at the top.

  • Daily: Coiling with upward bias, yesterday’s P-profile confirms buildup. Let price confirm direction today.

5️⃣ Order Flow & VWAP (2H Chart)

  • Buyers defended weekly VWAP firmly.

  • As we approach May 29 highs, look for signs of continuation:
    → stacked positive delta,
    → clean breakouts with follow-through.

  • Weak tape will fade above 6005–6008. Use DOM and footprint for confirmation.

6️⃣ NY TPO Profile

Clear breakout from the 5-day balance.

  • Single prints held at 5970—critical for bulls to defend today.

  • Value migrated higher. If we open inside range, expect early test of LIS.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Strike prices are tightening—classic late-stage coiling behavior.

  • The 6005–6008 cluster is attracting attention.
    Expect volatility around these ledges. Plan accordingly.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📍 LIS: 5983 (defined via VOMA live analysis)
This is the pivot for today’s directional bias. Monitor volume and absorption closely around this zone.

🐂 Bull Targets: 5991 → 5999 → 6006
🐻 Bear Targets: 5976 → 5968 → 5960

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Risk Notes

We’re at the top of balance, with energy headlines and rate sensitivity lingering in the backdrop.
Stay light. Don’t chase extensions unless delta confirms.
Patience wins today, trap the trapped.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

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