Daily ES Futures Outlook

Thursday, June 12th

Author

Jan Verhelst
June 12, 2025

1️⃣ Market Overview & Key Events

Today’s key macro focus:
📊 US Core PPI &
📉 Jobless Claims — both drop before the NY open.
Expect heightened sensitivity in the first hour. If we’re trending already pre-market, these prints could act as fuel or reversal triggers. Treat initial reactions with caution.

Smarter Investing Starts with Smarter News

The Daily Upside helps 1M+ investors cut through the noise with expert insights. Get clear, concise, actually useful financial news. Smarter investing starts in your inbox—subscribe free.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Session

The ES made a push for higher ground but found strong selling interest at Feb 26 Value Area High, halting momentum.
Buyers attempted to hold the 6035–6052 reclaim zone, but were overpowered. We closed right back at Tuesday’s POC, showing indecision.

This leaves one major question:
🧠 Are sellers here to stay, or are buyers reloading for a deeper squeeze?

3️⃣ Volume Profile Insights

We remain in OTFU (One Time Framing Up), but price is flirting with the prior Value Area High.
🚨 A clean break of 5979 today = potential seller acceleration.
Volume is compressing near Tuesday’s high-volume node. A move out of this coil will likely be sharp.

4️⃣ Market Structure Review

  • Weekly: Still OTFU, but structure is flattening.

  • Daily: Neutral , we’re balancing.
    Yesterday’s close near the weekly POC shows that price is stalling.
    📌 Reclaim zone = 5979–5981, the overlap of last week’s POC and the monthly key level.
    📈 Watch how we behave at 6000: failure = weakness confirmed, reclaim = reversal setup.

5️⃣ Order Flow & VWAP (2H Chart)

Yesterday showed sellers stepping in after a weak retest of the high gamma zone, with a clean rejection off the 6050 area.

  • Buyers attempted a hold, but lost grip late session.

  • Globex session hovered below VWAP, with sellers continuing to dominate intraday delta.
    A re-cross of VWAP with strong bid absorption would signal strength returning.

6️⃣ NY TPO Profile

We opened with a gap that got filled quickly—never a good look for bulls.
Session structure printed poor highs, which means buyers are not fully in control but still present.
A weak high + gap fill combo = indecision.
📌 If we open below 6000 again, the downside opens up quickly.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

The 1H chart shows VWAP catching price near the monthly support zone.
We’ve got a confirmed volume shelf + ledge combo at 5980–6000.
Strike activity shows 6000 acting as a put wall this may pin or trigger movement depending on positioning.

Avoid the 6050–6070 range unless you're trading with confirmation, it’s stop-run territory.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📍 Line in the Sand (LIS): 6045.00
This level is sitting right in the middle of a gamma shelf and prior session absorption zone.

🎯 Bullish Plan

  • T1: 6051.00

  • T2: 6056.50

  • T3: 6061.75
    📈 Confirmation = buyers holding above 6045, clean footprint delta builds, and DOM showing bid lifting without major absorption.

🎯 Bearish Plan

  • T1: 6040.25

  • T2: 6034.75

  • T3: 6029.50
    📉 Confirmation = failed reclaim of 6015 key level, aggressive selling pressure near VWAP, and negative delta stacking into breaks.

🔍 Technical Confirmation Tools

  • Imbalance + absorption at LIS

  • VWAP rejections or deviations

  • DOM spoof/iceberg activity near 6050–6070 = trap zone

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Risk Notes

Today’s all about control near VWAP and LIS.
If CPI and PPI didn’t shake us enough, gamma pinning and rollover flow will create messy mid-zone action.
Stick to edge-based trades. Avoid scalping 6050–6070 unless signals are undeniable.

🚫 No clear signal? Stay flat. Chop = account killer.

🧠 What is VOMA?

V.O.M.A. (Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer) is our proprietary real-time tool that tracks dealer positioning, volume imbalances, and liquidity shifts across intraday levels.

It gives us:
✅ Institutional reaction zones
✅ True inflection points
✅ Reversal shelves
✅ Trap detection

We trade it live every day in our Discord. LIS levels, order flow alerts, VWAP traps, all real-time, with guided analysis.

🔔 JOIN THE LIVE TRADING FLOOR
Get live VOMA levels, DOM analysis, footprint traps, and real-time trade planning.
💬 Yes, it’s partially free. No BS, just alpha.

👉 Join here

Are You Bearish or Bullish Today

What are your expectations

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.


Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59