Daily ES Futures Outlook

2025-06-03

Author

Jan Verhelst
June 03, 2025

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1️⃣ Market Overview & Key Events

JOLTS data drops today so expect reaction. It's a labor market gauge that can shake rates and sentiment. Combined with ongoing positioning near new monthly VWAP zones, we could see decisive intraday shifts. Stay reactive.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Session

Monday started with weakness following soft macro news, pressing ES down into the weekly VWAP area. Responsive buyers showed up below, specifically around the 4-day POC (5915). Although buyers pushed price higher, the session stayed inside value, no clean breakout, no breakdown. Just buildup.

3️⃣ Volume Profile Insights

Still OTFU, but tightly coiled.
Price is balancing around 5906, the prior composite POC. The current 10-day range is balanced, and value remains sticky. A real directional push will need acceptance above or rejection below this zone.

4️⃣ Market Structure Review

  • Weekly: OTFU, still hovering in a 4-week range.

  • Daily: OTFU as well, pressing the upper bounds of value.
    A clean break and hold above 5934 could give us the next leg up. Weak tape will fail near that zone and rotate back into the composite.

5️⃣ Order Flow & VWAP (2H Chart)

We’re at the start of a new monthly VWAP, and activity is clustering around it.
Monday showed absorption near 5945 and support around 5915, marking them as key zones. Order flow is mixed but leaning bullish if buyers hold the VWAP.

6️⃣ NY TPO Profile

We now have a 5-day balance, with POCs stacked around 5915.
Watch the extremes of the range (particularly above 5930 and below 5880).
A failed breakout will likely trap late traders and reverse hard. Stay disciplined.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Today’s strike prices are unusually wide—over 200 points in range. This creates a volatile, choppy zone in the middle.
📌 Stay out of the middle. Let price come to your levels.
The Volume Profile Composite is balanced—look for breaks from this zone to determine bias.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📍 LIS: 5942 (defined via VOMA real-time mapping)
Our VOMA system identified 5942 as today’s key inflection. Use this line to frame directional trades.

🐂 Bull Targets: 5950 → 5958 → 5967
🐻 Bear Targets: 5933 → 5925 → 5917

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Risk Notes

We’re stuck in a coil, and JOLTS may be the pin.
Don't fade strength unless structure supports it. Avoid overtrading inside the value chop. Trade level-to-level using VOMA zones and VWAP reactions.

🔎 What is VOMA?
The Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer is our proprietary tool that maps real-time inflection zones using institutional volume, dealer positioning, and order flow dynamics.
It gives you structure and clarity—no more guesswork.

📡 We trade these VOMA zones live every day in our Discord.
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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59