Daily ES Futures Outlook

2025-05-28

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 28, 2025

In partnership with

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1️⃣ Market Overview & Key Events
All eyes on today’s FOMC minutes release. Even if the market seems calm, a hawkish surprise could trigger fast repricing. Stay alert around the afternoon release window.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Session
Tuesday started with a soft retest of the post-holiday range, but bulls stepped in hard. ES launched into a strong trend day, finally holding above the 5906 POC and aligning with the larger bullish narrative. The HTF uptrend got fresh fuel.

3️⃣ Volume Profile Insights
Still OTFU (One-Time Framing Up) on the 10-day, with value consolidating higher. The current VA is sitting neatly above old bad structure from early May—bulls defending well. Acceptance above 5976 could open the door for higher targets.

4️⃣ Market Structure Review
Weekly: Inside week forming inside last week’s value area—coiling beneath major breakout zones.
Daily: Clear bullish intent, defending 5895. Still OTFU with room to run if buyers hold momentum.

5️⃣ Order Flow & VWAP (2H Chart)
Textbook bullish reaction off the weekly VWAP at NY open yesterday. Sellers got trapped, and the rally kicked off. This type of footprint is classic continuation fuel—watch VWAP again today for confirmation or reversal.

6️⃣ NY TPO Profile
Back above the May 21st Opening Range and last week’s single prints. Strong volume built near the top of yesterday’s profile—possible absorption or accumulation. Watch for weakness if we open below 5910.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices
Strike prices shifted higher, options traders positioning for further upside. Globex action confirms the bullish bias. 5906 remains a key area, but today’s LIS is 5939. Structure favors continuation as long as buyers defend that zone.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears
📌 LIS: 5939 (VOMA-confirmed inflection point)

🐂 Bull Targets: 5948 → 5958 → 5967
🐻 Bear Targets: 5929 → 5920 → 5910

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Risk Notes
Today is a structure day until the FOMC minutes drop. After that, prepare for sudden volatility. No front-running. Wait for clarity, and let VOMA guide your entries.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59