Daily ES Futures Outlook

2025-05-29

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 29, 2025

1️⃣ Market Overview & Key Events
Big morning ahead: GDP and jobless claims hit the tape. Expect volatility around the release. These prints could shift short-term sentiment hard so stay nimble and avoid pre-news trades unless highly structured.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Session
Wednesday gave us a textbook failed breakdown below Tuesday’s VAL, only to rocket back toward Monday’s VAH into the close. As shared in our Discord and Weekly Breakdown, overnight action nailed our 6005 bull target. Today, we monitor how price reacts to that zone.

Overview

3️⃣ Volume Profile Insights
Testing the upper edge of the last volume range. The 10-day value area is very tight (only ~40 points), signaling compression. 5975 is the level to watch for breakout or failure. Acceptance above brings continuation.

4️⃣ Market Structure Review
Weekly: Inside week transitioning toward breakout mode.
Daily: Bullish structure intact, still OTFU, showing resilience and trend strength. Compression leads to expansion, timing is everything now.

5️⃣ Order Flow & VWAP (2H Chart)
Buyers showed up again at the weekly VWAP, followed by a clean overnight breakout. Strong delta signals and trap zones support continuation, especially if GDP doesn’t disappoint.

6️⃣ NY TPO Profile
Yesterday’s session was rotational—two-sided auction with value building inside Tuesday’s. The market took a breath before this morning’s catalyst. Today’s open will be telling: stay alert for directional clues post-news.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices
Overnight, we broke May 20’s high with strong momentum. Strike prices are now bracketed between that high and monthly VWAP; a range that may trap late buyers. Know your levels and act accordingly.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears
📌 LIS: 5945

🐂 Bull Targets: 5954 → 5963 → 5972
🐻 Bear Targets: 5936 → 5926 → 5917

Let VOMA and structure lead. If 5945 holds, bulls are in command.

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Risk Notes
Today is catalyst-driven. Let GDP and jobless claims release before taking large positions. Fades are risky so look for structure and reaction at LIS and VOMA zones.

🔍 What is VOMA and Why We Use It
VOMA = Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer
It’s our proprietary real-time map of institutional positioning.
We use it daily to identify key reaction zones, turning points, and hidden traps.

🚨 We trade this live in our Discord, now partially free to join:
👉 Join here

Are You Bearish or Bullish Today

What are your expectations

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.


Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59